Fully Authoritarian
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Population
HRF classifies Belarus as ruled by a fully authoritarian regime.
Belarus gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, but its brief post-Soviet political openness ended when Alexander Lukashenko, a former collective farm director, was elected president in 1994. Initially, Belarus’s 1994 constitution provided for checks and balances through a moderately strong parliament and an independent constitutional court. Lukashenko quickly moved to dismantle these constraints. In late 1996, he staged a controversial constitutional referendum that expanded his powers and extended his term, allowing him to appoint loyal judges and dissolve the legislature. By the end of 1996, Lukashenko had replaced the parliament with a new assembly of his supporters and brought the judiciary under his de facto control.
Lukashenko has ruled Belarus virtually unchallenged since, winning every election (presidential and parliamentary) by orchestrated landslides. International observers have deemed all national votes since 1994 neither free nor fair. During his early rule, several opposition figures who challenged Lukashenko’s power disappeared under mysterious circumstances. In 1999, for example, opposition leaders Yury Zakharenka and Viktar Hanchar and businessman Anatoly Krasouski vanished and were presumed murdered by a secret Interior Ministry unit. No one has been held accountable for these disappearances, reinforcing a climate of fear and impunity.
Throughout the 2000s, Lukashenko further tightened his grip on power. A 2004 referendum eliminated presidential term limits, paving the way for his decades-long reign. Security services (still named the KGB) and police brutally suppressed periodic protests against his rule, such as in 2006 and 2010, jailing opposition candidates and activists. Lukashenko’s relentless repression of dissent has kept him in power, leading observers to dub him “Europe’s last dictator.” Even when he implemented limited liberalization to ease international isolation in the late 2010s, core authoritarian controls remained firmly in place.
Elections in Belarus are a sham, to the point where the real, mainstream political opposition does not have a realistic chance to meaningfully compete and possibly win. The Lukashenko government has completely sterilized the political playing field by outlawing all genuine opposition parties and locking up or driving away anyone who could mount a credible challenge. With no independent watchdogs allowed to monitor the vote and hundreds of thousands of exiled citizens deliberately stripped of their voting rights, the officials face no hurdles in fabricating landslide victories through forced early voting and doctored election results.
Belarussian independent media, political leaders, civil society leaders, organizations, and members of the general public face overt and systematic retaliation if they openly criticize or challenge the regime. The regime maintains absolute control over society by branding almost any form of independent civic activity as “extremism.” The civil society that existed prior to 2020 has been dismantled entirely, and taking to the streets in protest now carries the risk of facing lethal force. The state’s campaign to crush resistance also pursues dissidents far beyond its borders, utilizing aggressive tactics like passport confiscations, property seizures, and state-sponsored air piracy to punish those who fled.
Institutions largely fail to serve as independent checks on the regime, operating instead as extensions of the executive power. The judiciary lacks even a facade of independence; judges act as loyal enforcers who routinely hand down severe, politically motivated sentences to activists in closed-door trials. Because the legal system is weaponized against citizens, security forces enjoy complete immunity for their abuses. To further insulate the elites from any democratic oversight, recent constitutional changes have hollowed out the parliament, transferring ultimate power to an unelected All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA) packed with regime loyalists.
Elections in Belarus are a sham, to the point where the real, mainstream political opposition does not have a realistic chance to meaningfully compete and possibly win. The regime ensures total dominance by weaponizing restrictive laws to dissolve established political parties and criminalizing political leadership to imprison or exile potential challengers. Officials systematically undermine independent oversight by banning international monitors and liquidating domestic observation networks, while legally disenfranchising the diaspora to manipulate the election results. Consequently, electoral outcomes are predetermined through the gross inflation of turnout via administrative coercion and the direct falsification of official election protocols to produce predetermined landslide victories.
The regime has systematically and unfairly barred real, mainstream opposition parties or candidates from competing in elections. This exclusion is institutionalized through the weaponization of restrictive registration laws to dissolve established political entities and the manufacturing of “pseudo-opponents” to simulate competition. Following the “cleansing” of the political landscape, the January 2025 presidential election featured no genuine opposition; incumbent Alexander Lukashenko faced only three pro-government candidates and one nominal independent, widely viewed as a regime-approved spoiler. Similarly, the February 2024 parliamentary elections featured zero genuine opposition candidates. By early 2024, the Ministry of Justice had liquidated 11 of the 15 registered parties, including historic opposition forces like the Belarusian Popular Front and the United Civic Party. Consequently, all 110 seats in the House of Representatives – Belarus’ lower house of the parliament – went to regime-vetted nominees, primarily from the newly converted pro-Lukashenko party “Belaya Rus” and three other loyalist factions. This total sterilization of the electoral field cements the tactics deployed in 2020, when the regime arrested popular challengers Viktar Babaryka and Siarhei Tsikhanouski, and then forced Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to flee the country after she, by all independent accounts, had won the presidential race.
Official Minsk has systematically, unfairly, and significantly hindered real, mainstream opposition parties’ or candidates’ electoral campaigns. This hindrance relies on the criminalization of political leadership, resulting in long-term imprisonment of party heads and the forced exile of potential challengers. Ahead of the 2024/2025 cycle, the regime ensured no alternative figures could emerge by sentencing key party leaders to harsh prison terms: Belarusian Popular Front leader Ryhor Kastusiou received 10 years, and United Civil Party leader Mikalai Kazlou received 2.5 years. The crackdown effectively decapitated the remaining opposition structures inside the country. This systemic repression is a continuation of the 2020 post-election purge, where the regime responded to Tsikhanouskaya’s effective campaign with unprecedented violence, arresting tens of thousands of protesters, eradicating independent media and Civil Society Organization (CSOs), and labeling dissenters as “terrorists.”
The Lukashenko regime has systematically and seriously undermined independent electoral oversight. This is characterized by the total barring of credible international monitoring, the liquidation of domestic observation networks, and the enforcement of opaque voting procedures that eliminate ballot secrecy. Breaking with a precedent established in 2001, the regime refused to invite observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) for the 2024 parliamentary elections, a move widely interpreted as an admission that the vote would not meet even minimal democratic standards. This isolationism was mirrored domestically: with all major human rights organizations liquidated and labeled as “extremist” by 2023, independent domestic observation, formerly conducted by groups like “Human Rights Defenders for Free Elections”, was effectively eradicated. Consequently, electoral commissions at all levels were staffed exclusively by regime loyalists without any independent scrutiny. To further ensure opacity at polling stations, officials introduced repressive measures explicitly aimed at intimidation: they removed curtains from voting booths, compromising the secrecy of the vote, and criminalized the photographing of ballots to prevent voters from gathering evidence of their choice. These tactics represent an escalation of the suppression witnessed in 2020, when the government imposed a multi-day internet blackout to disrupt communication among observers and conceal the scale of falsifications.
Officials have systematically disenfranchised specific groups of voters. This disenfranchisement targets the massive diaspora community, perceived as a stronghold of opposition sentiment, by legislatively stripping them of their right to participate in elections from abroad. In a calculated move to purge hostile voters ahead of the 2024 “Single Voting Day,” the regime amended the Electoral Code in 2023 to completely abolish polling stations at Belarusian diplomatic missions. This measure effectively disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of citizens who fled the country following the 2020 crackdown – estimates suggest between 200,000 and 500,000 Belarusians currently live in exile. This reversal directly targets the demographic that formed massive queues at embassies in 2020 to vote against Lukashenko. Central Election Commission officials explicitly stated that citizens wishing to vote must return to Belarus to do so, a requirement that, given how many exiles face immediate arrest upon entry for their participation in past protests, effectively amounts to disenfranchisement. To ensure that the disengagement of the remaining domestic electorate would not delegitimize the process, the 2023 Electoral Code amendments removed the minimum turnout threshold (previously 50% for parliamentary elections). This legal manipulation ensures that elections are now deemed valid regardless of how few citizens actually cast a ballot, effectively nullifying the impact of any voter boycott strategies.
The regime has engaged in systematic, significant voting irregularities or electoral fraud. This fraud is institutionalized through the gross inflation of turnout figures via administrative coercion, the weaponization of early voting to facilitate ballot stuffing, and the direct falsification of final protocols to produce predetermined landslide victories. In the January 2025 presidential election, the Central Election Commission declared Alexander Lukashenko the winner with an implausible 86.8% of the vote, a figure achieved in the absence of any genuine competitive campaigning or independent verification. This follows the pattern of the 2024 “Single Voting Day,” where officials claimed a 73% turnout despite widespread reports of voter disengagement and apathy. To manufacture these numbers, the regime relies heavily on coerced early voting: in 2024, over 40% of the electorate, primarily students, military personnel, and public sector employees, were forced to vote ahead of election day, when ballot boxes remain unguarded and susceptible to stuffing. As a fail-safe against boycotts, the 2023 amendments to the Electoral Code eliminated the minimum turnout requirement, ensuring that elections are deemed valid regardless of actual participation. These tactics are designed to prevent a recurrence of the 2020 scenario, where independent data indicated that opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya likely won a majority of votes, contradicting the regime’s official claim that more than 80% went to Lukashenko. In that cycle, the officials even resorted to a multi-day nationwide internet blackout to disrupt the transmission of real vote counts from polling stations and suppress subsequent peaceful protests.
In Belarus, independent media, political leaders, civil society leaders, organizations, and members of the general public face overt and systematic retaliation if they openly criticize or challenge the regime. This systematic repression is driven by the weaponization of “anti-extremism” laws to mass imprison perceived opponents and the institutionalized destruction of civil society through the forced liquidation of СSOs and criminalization of independent civic action. The Lukashenko regime enforces the absolute criminalization of public assemblies, authorizing lethal force against demonstrators with total impunity, while systematically engaging in transnational repression, including by stripping dissidents in exile of their citizenship and engaging in state-sponsored air piracy.
The Lukashenko regime has systematically and seriously intimidated and obstructed the work of independent, dissenting media, political leaders, civil society leaders, organizations, or members of the general public. This systematic obstruction is driven by the weaponization of “anti-extremism” laws to criminalize all forms of dissent and the mass imprisonment of perceived opponents on politically motivated charges. As of February 2026, the scale of repression remains unprecedented in Belarus’s modern history, with at least 1150 political prisoners held in custody. While the regime recently released and exiled several high-profile figures, including Viktor Babariko, Maria Kalesnikava, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, the repressive apparatus remains fully intact and focused on those still behind bars. Prominent human rights defenders face ruthless persecution: Marfa Rabkova, coordinator of The Human Rights Centre Viasna’s volunteer service, is serving a draconian sentence of 14 years and 9 months on ten criminal counts, and Valiantsin Stefanovic, Viasna’s deputy chairman, remains imprisoned with a 9-year sentence. The regime also utilizes harsh verdicts to decapitate the opposition abroad: in March 2023, exiled leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for “conspiracy to seize power,” while Pavel Latushka received 18 years. The crackdown extends to ordinary citizens: in November 2024 alone, security forces detained over a hundred people in a single week for participating in anti-regime online chat groups. The regime’s paranoia criminalizes even minor acts of dissent, creating a climate of pervasive fear where neighbors are encouraged to inform on one another, a continuous wave of terror that has been systematically enforced since the mass protests of 2020 to suffocate any remaining resistance.
Officials have systematically and unfairly shut down independent, dissenting organizations. The repression is institutionalized through the forced liquidation of civil society groups and the criminal prosecution of their leaders for legitimate human rights work, effectively criminalizing independent civic action. Since 2021, the regime has structurally decimated the country’s civil society sector: over 1,300 CSOs, charities, and cultural associations have been forcibly liquidated or compelled to self-disband to avoid criminal liability. The repressive policy extends far beyond political groups. Academic and educational institutions have faced a witch-hunt for dissent, with professors and students expelled for “disloyalty.” Even the religious sphere is targeted: a 2023 law effectively outlawed “extremist” religious activity to preempt clergy from the Belarusian Orthodox Church and other faiths from criticizing state violence. Prominent victims of this scorched-earth policy include the Belarusian Association of Journalists and the Union of Belarusian Writers, both stripped of their legal status after decades of operation. The crackdown extended to the labor movement, with the dissolution of the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Trade Unions (BKDP), and even to non-political groups like APB BirdLife Belarus, a wildlife conservation charity banned for alleged “extremism.” The Human Rights Center Viasna – the country’s most prominent human rights organization, established by Ales Bialiatski in 1996 – was designated an “extremist formation,” effectively banning all of its activity in the country and criminalizing any interaction with it. Officials have targeted private businesses and IT companies suspected of harboring opposition sympathies, detaining entrepreneurs for supporting protests. Ultimately, any civic initiative not directly controlled by the state, whether in education, religion, or business, has been either co-opted or eradicated.
The regime has systematically, seriously, and unfairly repressed protests or gatherings. Officials implement absolute criminalization of unauthorized assemblies, the legislative authorization of lethal force against demonstrators, and a prevailing climate of impunity for state-sanctioned torture. As of August 2024, the number of politically motivated detentions since the 2020 election has exceeded 50,000, illustrating a relentless, multi-year campaign to eradicate public dissent. Today, peaceful assembly is effectively impossible: the regime routinely denies permits for any independent demonstration, and even solitary pickets or individuals holding blank signs face immediate arrest. To cement this control, the regime amended laws in 2021 to explicitly allow police to use live ammunition against protesters, retroactively legitimizing the extreme violence deployed during the 2020 peaceful protests. During those mass demonstrations, security forces killed at least several protesters, including 34-year-old Alexander Taraikovsky, who was shot dead by security forces on a street in Minsk; despite video evidence contradicting official claims that he died from an explosive device he had held in his hand, no investigation was launched. This state violence was accompanied by the “systematic practice of torture” in detention centers, confirmed by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, where thousands of detainees were beaten, deprived of medical care, and humiliated. Not a single security officer has been held accountable for these abuses, cementing a regime of terror that has successfully silenced dissent or protest.
Official Minsk has systematically engaged in, or enabled, transnational repression against dissidents abroad. This repression is institutionalized through the weaponization of consular services to strip exiles of their citizenship, seizure of their assets left in Belarus, and “in absentia” criminal proceedings designed to further punish dissidents in exile. The regime has shifted tactics from individual abductions to systemic administrative violence against the hundreds of thousands of such dissidents. A pivotal measure was the September 2023 “Decree No. 278,” which banned Belarusian diplomatic missions from issuing or renewing passports abroad. This policy effectively weaponized citizenship, forcing exiles to either return to Belarus, where they face immediate arrest for past protests, or become undocumented in their host countries. Simultaneously, the regime introduced “special proceedings” to try dissidents in absentia, resulting in harsh sentences and the confiscation of their property in Belarus; for instance, the apartment of exiled leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was seized following her 15-year sentence in 2023. The repression also targets families: throughout 2024, security services launched waves of raids against the relatives of political emigres, punishing mothers and spouses for their relatives’ activism. These systematic measures evolved from earlier, more bold acts of state terrorism, most notably the May 2021 hijacking of Ryanair Flight 4978 flying from Greece to Lithuania, when the regime diverted the flight over Minsk to then arrest opposition blogger Raman Pratasevich. This act of air piracy drew massive condemnation from the international community and demonstrated the regime’s willingness to violate international law to silence critics globally.
In Belarus, institutions largely fail to serve as independent checks on the regime, operating instead as extensions of the executive power. This systemic failure is driven by the executive’s direct control over judicial appointments to ensure the complete subservience of the judiciary, which subsequently acts as a repressive tool by routinely issuing politically motivated verdicts and denying due process. The regime fosters a state-sanctioned culture of total impunity, granting law enforcement absolute immunity for crimes committed against perceived enemies, while eradicating legislative oversight through the constitutional institutionalization of a supra-parliamentary body designed to bypass the parliament and secure the incumbent’s personalist rule.
The regime has systematically subjected judicial institutions to reforms or practices that abolish or seriously weaken their independence or operational effectiveness. This is characterized by the executive’s direct control over the appointment and dismissal of judges, ensuring their complete subservience to the presidential administration. The Belarusian judiciary lacks even nominal autonomy. Under the current constitution, reaffirmed by the 2022 amendments, the President retains the exclusive power to appoint and dismiss all judges, including those of the Supreme and Constitutional Courts. This mechanism forces judges to prioritize regime loyalty over the rule of law to preserve their careers. The vulnerability of the judiciary was further entrenched by a 2023 decree requiring judges to undergo ideological re-certification, effectively purging any remaining independent-minded professionals. Consequently, defense lawyers report that acquittals in political cases are virtually non-existent (less than 0.2%), as judges function merely as administrative clerks validating decisions made by the security apparatus.
Courts have systematically, frequently, and unfairly failed to check the regime’s attempts to repress criticism or retaliate against those who express open opposition. This complicity manifests through the routine issuance of politically motivated verdicts in closed trials and the denial of basic due process rights to defendants. The judicial system acts as the primary engine of the ongoing repression described in the “Freedom of Dissent” pillar. Judges routinely rubber-stamp fabricated charges of “extremism” and “terrorism” against civil society leaders. Instances include the 2023 sentencing of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski to 10 years and the 2024 convictions of exiled activists in absentia, often in trials held behind closed doors without the presence of independent media or impartial observers. Defendants, such as human rights defender Marfa Rabkova, are frequently denied confidential access to legal counsel, and their lawyers are often disbarred for diligently performing their duties. This “conveyor belt” justice system ensures that the regime’s political opponents are systematically isolated and denied legal protections.
Judicial institutions have systematically, frequently, and unfairly failed to hold the officials accountable. This systematic failure stems from a state-sanctioned culture of total impunity, where law enforcement bodies are granted absolute immunity for crimes committed against perceived enemies of the regime. Following the 2020 protests, the Investigative Committee received over 5,000 official complaints alleging torture and ill-treatment in detention; yet, not a single criminal case was initiated against members of the security forces. Instead, the regime actively rewards perpetrators: high-ranking officials implicated in the crackdown, such as Nikolai Karpenkov (head of GUBOPiK) and Ivan Kubrakov (Minister of Internal Affairs), were promoted and publicly awarded state honors following their active involvement in suppression of protests. This lack of accountability is effectively codified in legislation: 2021 amendments to the Law on State Protection of Judges and Officials allow security personnel to alter their appearance and conceal their personal data in court proceedings, rendering it impossible for victims to identify or challenge their abusers legally. New laws explicitly absolve officers of liability for physical harm caused while “suppressing riots.” The complete collapse of domestic accountability mechanisms has forced victims to seek justice abroad, triggering universal jurisdiction investigations in Lithuania, Poland, and Germany, a stark testament to the fact that within Belarus, the institutions of justice function solely to protect the enforcers of the dictatorship.
The Lukashenko regime has systematically subjected legislative institutions to reforms that abolish or seriously weaken their independence and operational effectiveness. This erosion is driven by the constitutional institutionalization of a supra-parliamentary body designed to bypass the legislature and secure the personal rule of the incumbent. Following the sham constitutional referendum in February 2022, the regime established the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA), a new supreme body with the power to impeach the president, annul elections, and appoint top judges. Fully formed in April 2024 and chaired by Alexander Lukashenko himself, the ABPA effectively usurps the functions of the elected Parliament (National Assembly), reducing the legislature to a ceremonial entity. The ABPA is staffed exclusively by regime loyalists and unelected officials, creating a parallel power structure that ensures Lukashenko retains ultimate control over the state even if he formally steps down from the presidency. This reform has finalized the transformation of Belarus into a personalist dictatorship where legislative oversight is structurally impossible.
HRF classifies Belarus as ruled by a fully authoritarian regime.
Belarus gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, but its brief post-Soviet political openness ended when Alexander Lukashenko, a former collective farm director, was elected president in 1994. Initially, Belarus’s 1994 constitution provided for checks and balances through a moderately strong parliament and an independent constitutional court. Lukashenko quickly moved to dismantle these constraints. In late 1996, he staged a controversial constitutional referendum that expanded his powers and extended his term, allowing him to appoint loyal judges and dissolve the legislature. By the end of 1996, Lukashenko had replaced the parliament with a new assembly of his supporters and brought the judiciary under his de facto control.
Lukashenko has ruled Belarus virtually unchallenged since, winning every election (presidential and parliamentary) by orchestrated landslides. International observers have deemed all national votes since 1994 neither free nor fair. During his early rule, several opposition figures who challenged Lukashenko’s power disappeared under mysterious circumstances. In 1999, for example, opposition leaders Yury Zakharenka and Viktar Hanchar and businessman Anatoly Krasouski vanished and were presumed murdered by a secret Interior Ministry unit. No one has been held accountable for these disappearances, reinforcing a climate of fear and impunity.
Throughout the 2000s, Lukashenko further tightened his grip on power. A 2004 referendum eliminated presidential term limits, paving the way for his decades-long reign. Security services (still named the KGB) and police brutally suppressed periodic protests against his rule, such as in 2006 and 2010, jailing opposition candidates and activists. Lukashenko’s relentless repression of dissent has kept him in power, leading observers to dub him “Europe’s last dictator.” Even when he implemented limited liberalization to ease international isolation in the late 2010s, core authoritarian controls remained firmly in place.
Elections in Belarus are a sham, to the point where the real, mainstream political opposition does not have a realistic chance to meaningfully compete and possibly win. The Lukashenko government has completely sterilized the political playing field by outlawing all genuine opposition parties and locking up or driving away anyone who could mount a credible challenge. With no independent watchdogs allowed to monitor the vote and hundreds of thousands of exiled citizens deliberately stripped of their voting rights, the officials face no hurdles in fabricating landslide victories through forced early voting and doctored election results.
Belarussian independent media, political leaders, civil society leaders, organizations, and members of the general public face overt and systematic retaliation if they openly criticize or challenge the regime. The regime maintains absolute control over society by branding almost any form of independent civic activity as “extremism.” The civil society that existed prior to 2020 has been dismantled entirely, and taking to the streets in protest now carries the risk of facing lethal force. The state’s campaign to crush resistance also pursues dissidents far beyond its borders, utilizing aggressive tactics like passport confiscations, property seizures, and state-sponsored air piracy to punish those who fled.
Institutions largely fail to serve as independent checks on the regime, operating instead as extensions of the executive power. The judiciary lacks even a facade of independence; judges act as loyal enforcers who routinely hand down severe, politically motivated sentences to activists in closed-door trials. Because the legal system is weaponized against citizens, security forces enjoy complete immunity for their abuses. To further insulate the elites from any democratic oversight, recent constitutional changes have hollowed out the parliament, transferring ultimate power to an unelected All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA) packed with regime loyalists.
Elections in Belarus are a sham, to the point where the real, mainstream political opposition does not have a realistic chance to meaningfully compete and possibly win. The regime ensures total dominance by weaponizing restrictive laws to dissolve established political parties and criminalizing political leadership to imprison or exile potential challengers. Officials systematically undermine independent oversight by banning international monitors and liquidating domestic observation networks, while legally disenfranchising the diaspora to manipulate the election results. Consequently, electoral outcomes are predetermined through the gross inflation of turnout via administrative coercion and the direct falsification of official election protocols to produce predetermined landslide victories.
The regime has systematically and unfairly barred real, mainstream opposition parties or candidates from competing in elections. This exclusion is institutionalized through the weaponization of restrictive registration laws to dissolve established political entities and the manufacturing of “pseudo-opponents” to simulate competition. Following the “cleansing” of the political landscape, the January 2025 presidential election featured no genuine opposition; incumbent Alexander Lukashenko faced only three pro-government candidates and one nominal independent, widely viewed as a regime-approved spoiler. Similarly, the February 2024 parliamentary elections featured zero genuine opposition candidates. By early 2024, the Ministry of Justice had liquidated 11 of the 15 registered parties, including historic opposition forces like the Belarusian Popular Front and the United Civic Party. Consequently, all 110 seats in the House of Representatives – Belarus’ lower house of the parliament – went to regime-vetted nominees, primarily from the newly converted pro-Lukashenko party “Belaya Rus” and three other loyalist factions. This total sterilization of the electoral field cements the tactics deployed in 2020, when the regime arrested popular challengers Viktar Babaryka and Siarhei Tsikhanouski, and then forced Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to flee the country after she, by all independent accounts, had won the presidential race.
Official Minsk has systematically, unfairly, and significantly hindered real, mainstream opposition parties’ or candidates’ electoral campaigns. This hindrance relies on the criminalization of political leadership, resulting in long-term imprisonment of party heads and the forced exile of potential challengers. Ahead of the 2024/2025 cycle, the regime ensured no alternative figures could emerge by sentencing key party leaders to harsh prison terms: Belarusian Popular Front leader Ryhor Kastusiou received 10 years, and United Civil Party leader Mikalai Kazlou received 2.5 years. The crackdown effectively decapitated the remaining opposition structures inside the country. This systemic repression is a continuation of the 2020 post-election purge, where the regime responded to Tsikhanouskaya’s effective campaign with unprecedented violence, arresting tens of thousands of protesters, eradicating independent media and Civil Society Organization (CSOs), and labeling dissenters as “terrorists.”
The Lukashenko regime has systematically and seriously undermined independent electoral oversight. This is characterized by the total barring of credible international monitoring, the liquidation of domestic observation networks, and the enforcement of opaque voting procedures that eliminate ballot secrecy. Breaking with a precedent established in 2001, the regime refused to invite observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) for the 2024 parliamentary elections, a move widely interpreted as an admission that the vote would not meet even minimal democratic standards. This isolationism was mirrored domestically: with all major human rights organizations liquidated and labeled as “extremist” by 2023, independent domestic observation, formerly conducted by groups like “Human Rights Defenders for Free Elections”, was effectively eradicated. Consequently, electoral commissions at all levels were staffed exclusively by regime loyalists without any independent scrutiny. To further ensure opacity at polling stations, officials introduced repressive measures explicitly aimed at intimidation: they removed curtains from voting booths, compromising the secrecy of the vote, and criminalized the photographing of ballots to prevent voters from gathering evidence of their choice. These tactics represent an escalation of the suppression witnessed in 2020, when the government imposed a multi-day internet blackout to disrupt communication among observers and conceal the scale of falsifications.
Officials have systematically disenfranchised specific groups of voters. This disenfranchisement targets the massive diaspora community, perceived as a stronghold of opposition sentiment, by legislatively stripping them of their right to participate in elections from abroad. In a calculated move to purge hostile voters ahead of the 2024 “Single Voting Day,” the regime amended the Electoral Code in 2023 to completely abolish polling stations at Belarusian diplomatic missions. This measure effectively disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of citizens who fled the country following the 2020 crackdown – estimates suggest between 200,000 and 500,000 Belarusians currently live in exile. This reversal directly targets the demographic that formed massive queues at embassies in 2020 to vote against Lukashenko. Central Election Commission officials explicitly stated that citizens wishing to vote must return to Belarus to do so, a requirement that, given how many exiles face immediate arrest upon entry for their participation in past protests, effectively amounts to disenfranchisement. To ensure that the disengagement of the remaining domestic electorate would not delegitimize the process, the 2023 Electoral Code amendments removed the minimum turnout threshold (previously 50% for parliamentary elections). This legal manipulation ensures that elections are now deemed valid regardless of how few citizens actually cast a ballot, effectively nullifying the impact of any voter boycott strategies.
The regime has engaged in systematic, significant voting irregularities or electoral fraud. This fraud is institutionalized through the gross inflation of turnout figures via administrative coercion, the weaponization of early voting to facilitate ballot stuffing, and the direct falsification of final protocols to produce predetermined landslide victories. In the January 2025 presidential election, the Central Election Commission declared Alexander Lukashenko the winner with an implausible 86.8% of the vote, a figure achieved in the absence of any genuine competitive campaigning or independent verification. This follows the pattern of the 2024 “Single Voting Day,” where officials claimed a 73% turnout despite widespread reports of voter disengagement and apathy. To manufacture these numbers, the regime relies heavily on coerced early voting: in 2024, over 40% of the electorate, primarily students, military personnel, and public sector employees, were forced to vote ahead of election day, when ballot boxes remain unguarded and susceptible to stuffing. As a fail-safe against boycotts, the 2023 amendments to the Electoral Code eliminated the minimum turnout requirement, ensuring that elections are deemed valid regardless of actual participation. These tactics are designed to prevent a recurrence of the 2020 scenario, where independent data indicated that opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya likely won a majority of votes, contradicting the regime’s official claim that more than 80% went to Lukashenko. In that cycle, the officials even resorted to a multi-day nationwide internet blackout to disrupt the transmission of real vote counts from polling stations and suppress subsequent peaceful protests.
In Belarus, independent media, political leaders, civil society leaders, organizations, and members of the general public face overt and systematic retaliation if they openly criticize or challenge the regime. This systematic repression is driven by the weaponization of “anti-extremism” laws to mass imprison perceived opponents and the institutionalized destruction of civil society through the forced liquidation of СSOs and criminalization of independent civic action. The Lukashenko regime enforces the absolute criminalization of public assemblies, authorizing lethal force against demonstrators with total impunity, while systematically engaging in transnational repression, including by stripping dissidents in exile of their citizenship and engaging in state-sponsored air piracy.
The Lukashenko regime has systematically and seriously intimidated and obstructed the work of independent, dissenting media, political leaders, civil society leaders, organizations, or members of the general public. This systematic obstruction is driven by the weaponization of “anti-extremism” laws to criminalize all forms of dissent and the mass imprisonment of perceived opponents on politically motivated charges. As of February 2026, the scale of repression remains unprecedented in Belarus’s modern history, with at least 1150 political prisoners held in custody. While the regime recently released and exiled several high-profile figures, including Viktor Babariko, Maria Kalesnikava, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, the repressive apparatus remains fully intact and focused on those still behind bars. Prominent human rights defenders face ruthless persecution: Marfa Rabkova, coordinator of The Human Rights Centre Viasna’s volunteer service, is serving a draconian sentence of 14 years and 9 months on ten criminal counts, and Valiantsin Stefanovic, Viasna’s deputy chairman, remains imprisoned with a 9-year sentence. The regime also utilizes harsh verdicts to decapitate the opposition abroad: in March 2023, exiled leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for “conspiracy to seize power,” while Pavel Latushka received 18 years. The crackdown extends to ordinary citizens: in November 2024 alone, security forces detained over a hundred people in a single week for participating in anti-regime online chat groups. The regime’s paranoia criminalizes even minor acts of dissent, creating a climate of pervasive fear where neighbors are encouraged to inform on one another, a continuous wave of terror that has been systematically enforced since the mass protests of 2020 to suffocate any remaining resistance.
Officials have systematically and unfairly shut down independent, dissenting organizations. The repression is institutionalized through the forced liquidation of civil society groups and the criminal prosecution of their leaders for legitimate human rights work, effectively criminalizing independent civic action. Since 2021, the regime has structurally decimated the country’s civil society sector: over 1,300 CSOs, charities, and cultural associations have been forcibly liquidated or compelled to self-disband to avoid criminal liability. The repressive policy extends far beyond political groups. Academic and educational institutions have faced a witch-hunt for dissent, with professors and students expelled for “disloyalty.” Even the religious sphere is targeted: a 2023 law effectively outlawed “extremist” religious activity to preempt clergy from the Belarusian Orthodox Church and other faiths from criticizing state violence. Prominent victims of this scorched-earth policy include the Belarusian Association of Journalists and the Union of Belarusian Writers, both stripped of their legal status after decades of operation. The crackdown extended to the labor movement, with the dissolution of the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Trade Unions (BKDP), and even to non-political groups like APB BirdLife Belarus, a wildlife conservation charity banned for alleged “extremism.” The Human Rights Center Viasna – the country’s most prominent human rights organization, established by Ales Bialiatski in 1996 – was designated an “extremist formation,” effectively banning all of its activity in the country and criminalizing any interaction with it. Officials have targeted private businesses and IT companies suspected of harboring opposition sympathies, detaining entrepreneurs for supporting protests. Ultimately, any civic initiative not directly controlled by the state, whether in education, religion, or business, has been either co-opted or eradicated.
The regime has systematically, seriously, and unfairly repressed protests or gatherings. Officials implement absolute criminalization of unauthorized assemblies, the legislative authorization of lethal force against demonstrators, and a prevailing climate of impunity for state-sanctioned torture. As of August 2024, the number of politically motivated detentions since the 2020 election has exceeded 50,000, illustrating a relentless, multi-year campaign to eradicate public dissent. Today, peaceful assembly is effectively impossible: the regime routinely denies permits for any independent demonstration, and even solitary pickets or individuals holding blank signs face immediate arrest. To cement this control, the regime amended laws in 2021 to explicitly allow police to use live ammunition against protesters, retroactively legitimizing the extreme violence deployed during the 2020 peaceful protests. During those mass demonstrations, security forces killed at least several protesters, including 34-year-old Alexander Taraikovsky, who was shot dead by security forces on a street in Minsk; despite video evidence contradicting official claims that he died from an explosive device he had held in his hand, no investigation was launched. This state violence was accompanied by the “systematic practice of torture” in detention centers, confirmed by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, where thousands of detainees were beaten, deprived of medical care, and humiliated. Not a single security officer has been held accountable for these abuses, cementing a regime of terror that has successfully silenced dissent or protest.
Official Minsk has systematically engaged in, or enabled, transnational repression against dissidents abroad. This repression is institutionalized through the weaponization of consular services to strip exiles of their citizenship, seizure of their assets left in Belarus, and “in absentia” criminal proceedings designed to further punish dissidents in exile. The regime has shifted tactics from individual abductions to systemic administrative violence against the hundreds of thousands of such dissidents. A pivotal measure was the September 2023 “Decree No. 278,” which banned Belarusian diplomatic missions from issuing or renewing passports abroad. This policy effectively weaponized citizenship, forcing exiles to either return to Belarus, where they face immediate arrest for past protests, or become undocumented in their host countries. Simultaneously, the regime introduced “special proceedings” to try dissidents in absentia, resulting in harsh sentences and the confiscation of their property in Belarus; for instance, the apartment of exiled leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was seized following her 15-year sentence in 2023. The repression also targets families: throughout 2024, security services launched waves of raids against the relatives of political emigres, punishing mothers and spouses for their relatives’ activism. These systematic measures evolved from earlier, more bold acts of state terrorism, most notably the May 2021 hijacking of Ryanair Flight 4978 flying from Greece to Lithuania, when the regime diverted the flight over Minsk to then arrest opposition blogger Raman Pratasevich. This act of air piracy drew massive condemnation from the international community and demonstrated the regime’s willingness to violate international law to silence critics globally.
In Belarus, institutions largely fail to serve as independent checks on the regime, operating instead as extensions of the executive power. This systemic failure is driven by the executive’s direct control over judicial appointments to ensure the complete subservience of the judiciary, which subsequently acts as a repressive tool by routinely issuing politically motivated verdicts and denying due process. The regime fosters a state-sanctioned culture of total impunity, granting law enforcement absolute immunity for crimes committed against perceived enemies, while eradicating legislative oversight through the constitutional institutionalization of a supra-parliamentary body designed to bypass the parliament and secure the incumbent’s personalist rule.
The regime has systematically subjected judicial institutions to reforms or practices that abolish or seriously weaken their independence or operational effectiveness. This is characterized by the executive’s direct control over the appointment and dismissal of judges, ensuring their complete subservience to the presidential administration. The Belarusian judiciary lacks even nominal autonomy. Under the current constitution, reaffirmed by the 2022 amendments, the President retains the exclusive power to appoint and dismiss all judges, including those of the Supreme and Constitutional Courts. This mechanism forces judges to prioritize regime loyalty over the rule of law to preserve their careers. The vulnerability of the judiciary was further entrenched by a 2023 decree requiring judges to undergo ideological re-certification, effectively purging any remaining independent-minded professionals. Consequently, defense lawyers report that acquittals in political cases are virtually non-existent (less than 0.2%), as judges function merely as administrative clerks validating decisions made by the security apparatus.
Courts have systematically, frequently, and unfairly failed to check the regime’s attempts to repress criticism or retaliate against those who express open opposition. This complicity manifests through the routine issuance of politically motivated verdicts in closed trials and the denial of basic due process rights to defendants. The judicial system acts as the primary engine of the ongoing repression described in the “Freedom of Dissent” pillar. Judges routinely rubber-stamp fabricated charges of “extremism” and “terrorism” against civil society leaders. Instances include the 2023 sentencing of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski to 10 years and the 2024 convictions of exiled activists in absentia, often in trials held behind closed doors without the presence of independent media or impartial observers. Defendants, such as human rights defender Marfa Rabkova, are frequently denied confidential access to legal counsel, and their lawyers are often disbarred for diligently performing their duties. This “conveyor belt” justice system ensures that the regime’s political opponents are systematically isolated and denied legal protections.
Judicial institutions have systematically, frequently, and unfairly failed to hold the officials accountable. This systematic failure stems from a state-sanctioned culture of total impunity, where law enforcement bodies are granted absolute immunity for crimes committed against perceived enemies of the regime. Following the 2020 protests, the Investigative Committee received over 5,000 official complaints alleging torture and ill-treatment in detention; yet, not a single criminal case was initiated against members of the security forces. Instead, the regime actively rewards perpetrators: high-ranking officials implicated in the crackdown, such as Nikolai Karpenkov (head of GUBOPiK) and Ivan Kubrakov (Minister of Internal Affairs), were promoted and publicly awarded state honors following their active involvement in suppression of protests. This lack of accountability is effectively codified in legislation: 2021 amendments to the Law on State Protection of Judges and Officials allow security personnel to alter their appearance and conceal their personal data in court proceedings, rendering it impossible for victims to identify or challenge their abusers legally. New laws explicitly absolve officers of liability for physical harm caused while “suppressing riots.” The complete collapse of domestic accountability mechanisms has forced victims to seek justice abroad, triggering universal jurisdiction investigations in Lithuania, Poland, and Germany, a stark testament to the fact that within Belarus, the institutions of justice function solely to protect the enforcers of the dictatorship.
The Lukashenko regime has systematically subjected legislative institutions to reforms that abolish or seriously weaken their independence and operational effectiveness. This erosion is driven by the constitutional institutionalization of a supra-parliamentary body designed to bypass the legislature and secure the personal rule of the incumbent. Following the sham constitutional referendum in February 2022, the regime established the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA), a new supreme body with the power to impeach the president, annul elections, and appoint top judges. Fully formed in April 2024 and chaired by Alexander Lukashenko himself, the ABPA effectively usurps the functions of the elected Parliament (National Assembly), reducing the legislature to a ceremonial entity. The ABPA is staffed exclusively by regime loyalists and unelected officials, creating a parallel power structure that ensures Lukashenko retains ultimate control over the state even if he formally steps down from the presidency. This reform has finalized the transformation of Belarus into a personalist dictatorship where legislative oversight is structurally impossible.
